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How Global Uncertainty Is Impacting Mortgage Rates

March 10, 2022 By David Warren

 

How Global Uncertainty Is Impacting Mortgage Rates | MyKCM

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you’ll want to keep a pulse on what’s happening with mortgage rates. Rates have been climbing in recent months, especially since January of this year. And just a few weeks ago, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate from Freddie Mac approached 4% for the first time since May of 2019. But that climb has dropped slightly over the past few weeks (see graph below):

How Global Uncertainty Is Impacting Mortgage Rates | MyKCM

The recent decline in mortgage rates is primarily due to growing uncertainty around geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia and Ukraine. But experts say it’s to be expected.

Here’s a look at how industry leaders are explaining the impact global uncertainty has on mortgage rates:

Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says:

“While mortgage rates trended upward in 2022, one unintended side effect of global uncertainty is that it often results in downward pressure on mortgage rates.”

In another interview, Kushi adds:

“Geopolitical events play an important role in impacting the long end of the yield curve and mortgage rates. For example, in the weeks following the ‘Brexit’ vote in 2016, the U.S. Treasury bond yield declined and led to a corresponding decline in mortgage rates.”

Kushi’s insights are a reminder that, historically, economic uncertainty can impact the 10-year treasury yield – which has a long-standing relationship with mortgage rates and is often considered a leading indicator of where rates are headed. Basically, events overseas can have an impact on mortgage rates here, and that’s what we’re seeing today.

Will Mortgage Rates Stay Down?

While no one has a crystal ball to predict exactly what will happen with rates in the future, experts agree this slight decline is temporary. Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, echoes Kushi’s sentiment, but adds that the decline in rates won’t last:

“Geopolitical tensions caused U.S. Treasury yields to recede this week . . . leading to a drop in mortgage rates. While inflationary pressures remain, the cascading impacts of the war in Ukraine have created market uncertainty. Consequently, rates are expected to stay low in the short-term but will likely increase in the coming months.” 

Rates will likely fluctuate in the short-term based on what’s happening globally. But before long, experts project rates will renew their climb. If you’re in the market to buy a home, doing so before rates start to rise again may be your most affordable option.

Bottom Line

Mortgage rates are an important piece of the puzzle because they help determine how much you’ll owe on your monthly mortgage payment in your next home. Let’s connect so you have up-to-date information on rates and trusted advice on how to time your next move.

Filed Under: Buyer Advice, Real Estate News

More People Are Planning To Buy a Home Soon

February 16, 2022 By David Warren

More People Are Planning To Buy a Home Soon | MyKCM

While some homeowners may be tempted to hold off until spring to list their houses, you should know – homebuyers aren’t waiting. Demand is high today as more people are trying to beat rising mortgage rates. As a result, eager buyers are entering the market or moving their plans up so they can make their purchases as soon as possible.

The most recent Consumer Confidence Survey finds that, of those surveyed, the percentage of people planning to buy over the next six months has increased substantially since last fall (see graph below):

More People Are Planning To Buy a Home Soon | MyKCM

As the graph shows, the number of consumers fast-tracking their plans to purchase a home has crept up over the past three months. That indicates many buyers are evaluating their strategy and realizing they should act sooner rather than later. And for homeowners planning to sell, it’s a signal that now may be the time to list.

While more people are moving their plans up, others are actively putting theirs in motion. Time on the market is a great indication that homebuyers are motivated and moving quickly. According to a recent realtor.com report, the average home sold faster this January than any January on record.

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, notes:

“Homes sold at a record-fast January pace, suggesting that buyers are more active than usual for this time of year.”

What Does That Mean for You?

Homebuyers are rethinking their strategies and moving their plans forward. Others are making their moves today. That means demand for your house isn’t just increasing – it’s high right now.

And because there are so few homes available for determined purchasers to choose from, if you’re planning to sell your house this year, doing so sooner means you can take advantage of high buyer demand before more houses are listed in your neighborhood. Why is this important? Because as more houses are put up for sale, buyers will have more options. But until then, your house will be in the spotlight.

Bottom Line

With so many buyers eager to make a purchase, you could benefit by listing your house soon. To understand how strong buyer demand is in our area, let’s connect so you can start making your plans today.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

How To Think Strategically as a Buyer in Today’s Market

December 6, 2021 By David Warren

How To Think Strategically as a Buyer in Today’s Market | MyKCM

The game of chess can provide incredible lessons to apply to all aspects of life, including the homebuying process. Chess requires you to plan and think about your strategy from the very beginning of the game.

The homebuying process, like chess, requires strategy and planning. Here are a few things to keep in mind to ensure your plan is as strong as possible when you begin your home search.

Pre-Approval: the Best Opening Play To Make as a Homebuyer

It’s important to have a great opening play when you’re buying a home. And the best move you can make when you begin your home search is getting pre-approved by a lender. You’ve probably already heard this is an important step, but what exactly is pre-approval and what benefits does it provide you?

As Freddie Mac puts it:

“The pre-approval letter from your lender tells you the maximum amount you are qualified to borrow. Getting a pre-approval letter is not a loan guarantee, it simply states how much your lender is willing to lend you. . . .”

And while determining how much you can afford at the start of your search is critical, the pre-approval letter also serves another important purpose. Freddie Mac also notes:

“This pre-approval allows you to look for a home with greater confidence and demonstrates to the seller that you are a serious buyer.”

In the game of chess, a strong opening move signals to your opponent that you’re a serious competitor. As a homebuyer, your pre-approval letter signals to the seller that you’re a serious, interested buyer.

Homebuying: It’s a Team Game, Not a Single-Player Experience

Every step you take to create your strategy as a buyer is important in today’s market. Why? Mortgage rates are still low, but increasing. Prices are going up. There’s a limited supply of homes for sale. These are just a few key variables in today’s market you need to be prepared for.

That means leaning on expert guidance as you plan every move is more important than ever. Have a team of professionals – like your trusted real estate agent and a loan officer – every step of the way to make sure you make the right moves.

Bottom Line

Getting a pre-approval letter isn’t just good strategy, it can be game-changing. It allows you to get a full understanding of what you can afford, and it signals to sellers that you’re serious. Let’s connect today to ensure you’re playing chess and being strategic during the home buying process.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Tips for Single Homebuyers: How To Make Your Dream a Reality

December 6, 2021 By David Warren

Tips for Single Homebuyers: How To Make Your Dream a Reality | MyKCM

If you’re living on your own and looking to buy a home, know that you can make your dream a reality with thoughtful planning and the right team of experts. Research from Freddie Macshows 28% of all households (36.1 million) are sole-person, and that number is growing. Over the past 40 years, the number of sole-person households has nearly doubled, and that’s a trend that’s expected to continue. According to Freddie Mac:

“Our calculation suggests that there will be an additional 5 million sole-person households in the United States by the next decade. This means 42% of the household growth will be contributed by sole-person households, . . .”

If you fall into this category, here are three tips to help you achieve your homeownership goals.

1. Know Your Credit Score

When you buy a home on your own, you have to qualify for your loan based solely on your own finances and credit history. Investopedia says:

“. . . lenders will be looking at just one credit profile: yours. Needless to say, it has to be in great shape. It is always a good idea to review your credit report beforehand, and this is especially true of solo buyers.”

It’s important to find out your score so you know where it falls. If you’re not sure if it’s strong enough or where to focus your energy to improve it, meet with a professional for expert advice on your individual situation.

2. Explore Down Payment Options

Next, look into down payment programs so you can get a feel for what you’ll need to save to buy a home. Rob Chrane, CEO of Down Payment Resource, explains:

“Buyers should discuss their program options with their loan officer and real estate agent to make sure they choose the program best suited to their personal needs.”

In this step, lean on the pros to determine what you’re eligible for and what’s right for you.

3. Think About Your Future Home and Your Needs

You should also spend time thinking about what you want. What type of home do you picture yourself in? To answer that question, Quicken Loans shares this advice:

“Think about your lifestyle, what you want out of your home and your needs. Is being close to work important? Do you need a lot of yard space? Do you want an extra bedroom that you can transform into a home office? Condo or detached home? Lots of space for entertaining? It’s all up to you (and your budget).”

Again, a professional can help you balance what you want and how much you should spend on your monthly housing costs to determine what type of home is right for you.

While buying a home solo can feel like a big challenge, it doesn’t have to be. If you lean on the professionals, they can help you navigate these waters and make sure you’re able to take advantage of the great opportunities in today’s housing market (like low mortgage rates) to buy your dream home.

Bottom Line

The share of sole-person households is growing. If you’re looking to buy a home on your own, be confident that the dream is achievable. When you’re ready to begin your search, let’s connect so you have expert advice each step of the way.

 

Filed Under: Uncategorized

The Advantages of Buying and Selling a Home in the Off Season

December 17, 2020 By David Warren

Many people believe that buying or selling in the winter months puts them at a disadvantage. They may assume their listing will sit on the market and buyers may envision a limited selection of listings to view. However, savvy buyers and sellers know that the off season can be a great time to complete a real estate transaction!   

Advantages To Buying in the Off-Season

Attentive Service From Lenders – One of the greatest perks to buying in the off season is the enhanced service you will receive from lenders. During the peak season, lenders are busy. But during the slower months you will get a timelier response from your loan officer and underwriting. 

Better Rates With Moving Companies – During the peak real estate season, it can even be a struggle to find a moving company that is available. Moving during the slower months will open up your options for what moving company to move with. You will be able to shop around for the highest-rated moving companies and take advantage of lower off-season fees. 

Motivated Sellers – The biggest benefit to buying in the off season is the type of sellers on the market. People who list their homes in the slower months are often very motivated. They are typically working against a deadline and want to get their house sold. This can work in the buyer’s advantage when it comes time to negotiate.  

Advantages To Selling in the Off-Season 

Less Competition – Selling your house in the cooler months is a great strategy for lowering your competition. Markets across the country are already experiencing low inventory and in the winter it will likely reduce even more. Buyers are still extremely motivated to take advantage of historically low interest rates. 

A Quicker Process – As your real estate expert, I am committed to providing the best service to you no matter the season. However, when things are slower, the transaction can move along at a quicker clip due to all the players being less-busy – from the lender to the closing agent, inspectors, and more!  

Serious Buyers – The off season typically yields more serious buyers than during the warmer months. It takes a little more effort to attend showings during the winter while contending with weather and lack of sunlight, and buyers aren’t going to go out of their way to look at a home that they aren’t really interested in. Off season buyers typically have a deadline they are up against such as relocating for a job or being settled in a home before the holidays. The cooler weather tends to weed out the buyers who are pretending to be on their own episode of House Hunters. 

Now is a great time to list your house on the market or buy some real estate. Don’t let the myths of peak season keep you from accomplishing your real estate goals now. Take advantage of the benefits of a slower real estate season. 

If you are thinking about selling or buying, please feel free to contact me any time to discuss your plans. I’m always happy to help in any way I can.

 

Source: https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/ehs-08-2020-overview-2020-09-22.pdf

Filed Under: Buyer Advice, Seller Advice Tagged With: David Warren Real Estate, How do I sell my Seattle home?, Is now a good time to buy a home in Seattle?, West Seattle Realtor, When is the best time to sell my home?

Are We In A Housing Bubble?

September 29, 2020 By David Warren

The Short Answer is No

The economic landscape of 2020 has been volatile and unpredictable due to the pandemic. Record numbers are being recorded for unemployment claims and we have a portion of the workforce working from home (some balancing kids online school with work). Conversely, interest rates are at all-time historic lows. These juxtaposing factors have some Americans wondering what pandemic-induced recession is going to mean for the real estate world. Are we headed toward another housing market crash that will mimic The Great Recession 2008? The short answer is no. A close analysis of what the market factors at work should leave homeowners feeling more assured. 

Housing Values

Housing values have seen dramatic increases in the last year-plus, and in some locations housing values have increased as much as 20%. This is primarily due to a lack of inventory (sellers not wanting to sell, lack of new construction over the past decade) and a large number of buyers taking advantage of historically-low interest rates. This quick increase in housing value and buying frenzy is the main reason people are afraid of the previous recession repeating itself since some of the signs look familiar. The difference is that prior to the last recession, the sharp increase in housing values took place due to a buying frenzy caused by easy access to mortgages (more on this below). One could say that this was artificial demand since a percentage of those buyers should not have been able to qualify for a mortgage. 

As compared to the period just before the recession, today’s homeowners have far more equity in their homes. Before the Great Recession, many new homeowners were getting homes with little down payment, meaning they had little or nothing to fall back on when prices declined. That is not the case today.

Interest Rates

Mortgage interest rates in the early 2000’s leading up to the housing bubble averaged between 5-6% for a conventional 30-year loan. Currently, interest rates have dropped below 3% on a conventional 30-year loan for the first time ever. This difference in interest means hundreds of dollars each month in mortgage payment interest savings, especially important if homeowners need to refinance or adjust their loans.

Mortgage Lending Requirements

In addition to the difference in interest rates, there is also a chasm between the underwriting guidelines on mortgages during the housing bubble and the guidelines being enforced now. Much of what caused the housing collapse of 2008 was lenient lending guidelines and predatory lenders. In the early 2000’s loans were being granted to borrowers who were overextended and unfamiliar with their mortgage terms. Many took out adjustable rate mortgages that were a stretch to afford in the first place, and impossible to pay once the rate adjusted. 

Since the housing market crash there were a series of regulatory guidelines put into place to protect the American population from predatory lending. Additionally, mortgage lenders have tightened their approval conditions, even more so since the pandemic began to mitigate the risk of mortgages going into default.  

By and large, the housing market crash of 2008 was one of the key factors for the recession. The real estate market changes right now represent higher-than-normal demand for scarce inventory plus a reaction to the pandemic economy. While no one can assuredly say exactly what is in our future, real estate experts across the board do not see a looming bubble in our future. 

SOURCES:

https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/foreclosures-crisis-wont-look-like-great-recession/ 

http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.html 

Filed Under: Buyer Advice, Real Estate News, Seller Advice Tagged With: 202O Economy, Housing Bubble, Real Estate Market, Recession, Seattle Housing Market

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David Warren
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David Warren | Realtor
Managing Broker
425-760-8285 Direct

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